I am no longer making predictions.
This is not a New Year’s resolution. It’s just a resolution. One that could be made at any point during the year. But I’m making it now because I had some downtime during the holiday break and this is one of many epiphanies I’ve had, and I don’t want to stand on ceremony. I’m just saying it’s not a New Year’s resolution because researchers have shown that over 90% of New Year’s resolution makers fail to keep them. By saying it’s just a simple resolution, I’m looking to increase my odds of success. 🤪
I know this promise to myself is going to be incredibly difficult to keep because it flies in the face of a pain point. A pain point that I encounter about 17 times a day. Probably more.
I can’t tolerate the unknown.
Will my youngest daughter wake-up at a reasonable hour?
Will the director I submitted a feature script to last month actually read it?
Did the agent I submitted the script to for the director actually give it to them?
Will the movie ever get made?
What will the budget be?
How bad will the rains be this winter?
Will our roof hold up or collapse on us?
When will the contractor replace the roof?
The questions I ponder are endless. And 99.9% of the time the answer is, “I don’t know.”
OUR BRAINS ON “I DON’T KNOW”
Whenever the unknown pops up, I make a prediction of what will happen. Why? It’s science. The brain can’t tolerate the unknown. The unknown represents danger. So the brain will come up with an answer to ensure safety. It doesn’t matter if the answer is true or not. All that matters is there’s an answer and now there’s a lovely hormone rush that rewards the brain for filling in the void. Regardless of the credibility of the answer.
Here are a few of my all-time favorite answers (aka predictions):
In 2003, in the boardroom of CBS Black Rock, in front of 40 suited white men (primarily over 50 years old) plus a handful of women in blazers, I was asked what predictions I had about the success of one of the network’s pilots, NCIS. Despite being the number two in the drama development department at the time, I didn’t know what I thought. I knew what the research said, but I had no idea whether NCIS would be successful. I chose to be a contrarian to try and distinguish myself and made this prediction (with great authority), “NCIS will never be as successful as the CSI mothership.” In 2022, after almost twenty years on the air, Variety reported that it was the second most watched series of the season. Yikes.
“What time will you be home?” my husband asks me. Now we all know that you can’t predict traffic in Los Angeles even with Waze and Google maps. However, I make a prediction I can shave a few minutes off my commute by taking Mulholland instead of Laurel Canyon. Ha.
When’s the best time to make a submission to an actor, director, buyer? I get asked this all the time, and I too ask this question all the time. Hard truth: No one really knows. I was a buyer for over a decade and I never knew when it would be a good time. However, I still make a prediction. After the New Year. Folx will be refreshed and focused and ready to jump in. Really?
Another frequent question: Will an upcoming event be worth my time and investment? I predict yes: I will meet some people and expand my network. This is literally what goes through my head every single time. Sometimes it happens, frequently it does not. It’s truly impossible to predict.
Whenever I come up with an answer to the unknown, I get a rush of relief. It doesn't matter whether the answer is helpful or hurtful. The relief is palpable because at least now I know. But do I really?
Man, what I wouldn’t give to have a crystal ball.
Or access to a futurist. Their predictions are much more acceptable than mine because they are based on current trends and statistics. It feels like if there’s data to back-up the prediction then it’s trustworthy.
PREDICTIONS AS A WAY TO ALLEVIATE THE UNKNOWN
Clearly, I’m desperate to find a reasonable way to make predictions, or trust other people’s predictions. It’s because I’m afraid of the unknown. The unknown is dangerous. When I know something then I can make plans on how to deal with it even if I don’t like it.
For example, I can make a prediction that I will never hear anything from the director I submitted a feature script to (along with a lovely, specific love letter on why they are the perfect match for the project.) I’ll be ghosted by them and their agent. I don’t like this prediction for a variety of obvious reasons … and this type of prediction also opens up the doors for gremlin voices to kick in. So I make plans on how to deal with the non-response. I always follow-up three times and then let it go. I allow myself to be angry, frustrated, confused and defensive. Then I’ll go to the next name on the list and start all over again.
But then … magically, wondrously, I actually get a call from the manager who says their client loves the script and wants to meet! All that wasted energy anticipating being ghosted, having pre-feelings about being ghosted, and then reviewing and re-reviewing names of who to go to next after being ghosted. It’s all a big waste of time.
What I have realized is that predictions are a significant waste of time, energy, and resources. My predictions are rarely correct. So the ROI (return on investment) is quite low.
Here are two more examples:
A client has a big meeting coming up. We conduct extensive prep by researching affinity matches, becoming familiar with the producer’s slate of projects, practicing answers to questions we predict could come up. The meeting gets canceled a few hours before go-time. We predict the person got called away for a production crisis or that they’ve changed their mind about working with my client. We predict that the person’s assistant will call in a few days with an update. None of these things came true. The assistant emailed later to say the producer had emergency surgery. We never would have predicted that.
Another client was focused on building his portfolio as a filmmaker. He wrote and directed a short film that we predicted would get some festival attention. With that festival attention we predicted he would get interest from agents and managers. With representation, we predicted he would get support putting his first full-length feature together. Well, his short did not get accepted into any festivals. It was incredibly disappointing. However, the short got circulated (because it was really really good!) and he was hired to co-write and direct a limited series that will have its premiere on a major streamer. We never predicted that he could go from directing a short film to directing a limited series with major talent.
In reflecting on these experiences, I can’t help but think what I could be doing with all my time, energy and resources if I wasn’t making predictions?
I could be fully in the present. With eyes wide open, witnessing all the joy and possibility that’s in front of me. Or I could become aware of true danger that’s at my doorstep that I can’t see because I’m looking into the distance.
It really requires a leap of faith to trust in my ability to respond to whatever comes my way when it comes my way.
No more predictions is going to be a heavy lift. I’ve shared this resolution with my family and friends, now here in a public forum, as a way to hold myself accountable to my word.
BOTTOM LINE
I'm officially out of the prediction game. No crystal ball, no futurist hotline. Just embracing the unknown with open arms. It's not a New Year's resolution; it's a life resolution. So, here's to living in the moment, dodging unnecessary stress, and letting go of the need to foresee every twist and turn.
JOURNAL QUESTIONS
A few questions to support you in contemplating resolutions:
What are your beliefs about making resolutions? What has informed those beliefs?
If you’re contemplating or ready to make a resolution, what’s important to you about it?
How do you want to set yourself up for success?
If you should slip or fail, what then?
When do you typically make predictions? What do you think is driving those predictions?
🙌🏾 Questions? Would you like additional support in accessing resilience? I offer private coaching sessions as well as in-person and virtual group work. Reach out directly here to set up a complimentary consultation.
If you’re resonating with what you’re reading, please consider subscribing. What’s that mean?
🙌🏾 You’ll receive regular emails (with lots of heart and a bit of humor) that share a tool or insight from my coaching practice.
🙌🏾 Typically the blog and blogcast will have a question at the end to provoke thought that supports you in your growth.
🙌🏾 Updates on offerings, free stuff, recommendations, referrals.
My blog aims to help people achieve their ambitious goals, their moonshot if you will. 😃 Oftentimes, though, we neglect an essential aspect of pursuing our dreams: the inevitable missteps, obstacles, and failures that come our way. Failing to acknowledge and process these losses properly can lead to imposter syndrome, burnout, low self-esteem, confusion, and even result in completely abandoning our dreams. 😟 That's why I strongly advocate for embracing grief awareness (along with other tools like values identification, knowing your why, sharpening executive function, habit forming, and more.) By doing so, we can effectively navigate challenges, regain motivation, and hit our moonshots. ✌🏾️ If you know someone who could benefit, please share this newsletter or recommend me to them. 🙏
Why I'm Quitting the Guessing Game